Oscars' sure bet: Everyone wants the winning odds

Even the sports-mad betting casinos of Las Vegas will hunker down for entertainment's biggest night of the year.

When showtime rolls around Sunday for the 88th Academy Awards (ABC, 7 p.m. ET/4 PT), "we tell the horse race and sports people that they have to leave,” says Johnny Avello, director of race and sports operations for Wynn Las Vegas casino. “Because it's entertainment night."

For the past 25 years, Avello has set odds (for entertainment purposes, not betting) and claims 80% accuracy for his picks in the six major categories. Seasoned entertainment professionals monitor every moment of awards season to forecast the winners on awards website GoldDerby.com. Even the producers behind the search engine Bing are in the prediction game, using algorithms of Web activity, social sentiment and other signals (with 84% accuracy last year).

Oscar ballot: Who will win and should win

Here’s what prognosticators anticipate for Oscar night:

DIRECTOR

Bing:The Revenant director Alejandro González Iñárritu is surging with 68% probability of success over Mad Max: Fury Road's George Miller (17%), Spotlight’s Tom McCarthy (7%), The Big Short 's Adam McKay (6%) and Room’s Lenny Abrahamson (2%).

Vegas: Avello notes that Inarritu is “pulling away” from the field (1 to 3 odds), followed by Miller (5 to 1 odds).

Pundits: GoldDerby.com editor Tom O'Neil says 23 of his site's 27 experts predict Iñárritu, with four "holding out" for Miller. But it seems a "foregone conclusion" that Oscar voters will chose Iñárritu for the second year in a row (after 2015's Birdman win). "When they like you, they really, really like you," he says.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Bing:Creed’s Sylvester Stallone leads the pack with 56% probability of success over Bridge of Spies' Mark Rylance (27%), Spotlight’s Mark Ruffalo (7%), The Big Short’s Christian Bale (6%) and The Revenant’s Tom Hardy (4%)

Vegas: Avello says the big odds are on Stallone (1 to 2 odds), but look out for “possible upsets here” by Rylance (5 to 2 odds) or even the “well-liked” Ruffalo (14 to 1 odds).

Pundits: O'Neil says 23 GoldDerby experts are for Stallone, two for Rylance, two for Ruffalo. "It's an Oscar inevitability," says O'Neil of Stallone. "He's perfectly perched to get his overdue Oscar."

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Bing: The Danish Girl’s Alicia Vikander has surged (50% probability to win) over Steve Jobs’ Kate Winslet (26%) Carol’s Rooney Mara (15%), The Hateful Eight’s Jennifer Jason Leigh (6%) and Spotlight’s Rachel McAdams (3%).

Vegas: Avello points out there's more upset potential here for Vikander (even odds) than in any other acting category, including the “main competition” of Winslet (2 to 1 odds).

Pundits: O'Neil says 24 experts are for Vikander, three for Winslet. "But the race is actually much closer than these numbers show."

ACTOR

Bing:The Revenant’s Leonardo DiCaprio commands a 73% win probability over The Martian’s Matt Damon (9%), The Danish Girl’s Eddie Redmayne (7%), Steve Job’s Michael Fassbender (6%) and Trumbo’s Bryan Cranston (5%).

Vegas: “There’s no such thing as a sure thing,” says Avello. “But DiCaprio is as big a favorite (1 to 20 odds) as we’ve ever had.”

Pundits: All 27 GoldDerby experts have chosen DiCaprio. "That's a slam-dunk shoe-in," says O'Neil.

ACTRESS

Bing: Room’s Brie Larson controls with 76% probability of success, over Brooklyn’s Saoirse Ronan (9%), Joy’s Jennifer Lawrence (6%),Carol’s Cate Blanchett (5%) and 45 Years’ Charlotte Rampling (4%).

Vegas: With 1 to 9 odds, Larson is “pretty locked in to win," Avello says. "Everyone else is a long shot.”

Pundits: All 27 GoldDerby experts have sided with Larson. "She's had no serious competition all season," says O'Neil.

BEST PICTURE

Bing: The closest race of all is for the top prize. The Revenant has a 37% probability of a win, outdistancing Spotlight (26%), The Big Short (19%), The Martian (6%), Mad Max (5%), Bridge of Spies (4%), Room (2%) and Brooklyn (1%).

Best picture race brings chaos to the Oscars

Vegas: Revenant has surged to the top with even odds over main contenders Spotlight (8 to 5) and The Big Short (6 to 1).

Pundits: The race has split the GoldDerby field, with 18 experts for Revenant, followed by five for The Big Short and four for Spotlight. "It's really a total toss-up," says O'Neil. "Three films have a serious chance to win."