Trade rumors aside, Rockets and Dwight Howard not ready for divorce
When the NBA trade deadline came and went Thursday and Dwight Howard was still in a Houston Rockets jersey, it was widely seen as the delaying of an inevitable divorce.
All those rumors about Howard being unhappy, about discord between him and teammate James Harden, made it entirely reasonable to consider this hoops marriage broken. Those suspicions seemed to be founded in the days leading up to the deadline, when Rockets general manager Daryl Morey had extensive discussions with several teams about a Howard trade only to stand pat when the offers didn’t size up.
But the truth, the thing that will make this summer so interesting for the Rockets and the many teams that will be affected by how this superstar saga plays out, is that neither side is ready to give up just yet.
Nor should they.
As dynamic duos go, Howard-Harden remains one of the best in the NBA. Before discussing the drama and personal dynamics that matter leading up to Howard’s expected free agency this summer, a look at the indisputable facts.
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• Since Howard came to town in the summer of 2013, the Rockets have the fifth-best regular-season record (138-82) in the NBA. Entering Tuesday, only the Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder had been better during that span. That includes this season’s 28-28 record nine months after the Rockets’ first trip to the Western Conference finals since 1997.
• In terms of dynamic duos, the Harden-Howard pairing is still the fourth-most productive this season based on combined totals of points, rebounds and assists per game (69.4). Only the Thunder’s Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook (81.8), the Warriors’ Stephen Curry and Draymond Green (72.8) and the Sacramento Kings’ DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo (71.8) have been more productive. The Los Angeles Clippers’ Chris Paul and Blake Griffin have a combined total of 69.8, but - because Griffin has missed 26 of 56 games and Paul’s production increased in his absence – the figure is skewed.
• While Harden’s individual impact remains elite (28 points, seven assists and 6.4 rebounds per), Howard’s has been somewhat overlooked because of his dip in scoring (14.6 points per game; his lowest total since his rookie season in 2004-05). He is one of only three players currently averaging at least 14 points and 11 rebounds per game (the others are the Detroit Pistons’ Andre Drummond and the Kings’ Cousins).
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The Rockets know all this, which is why their dream scenario of a Howard-Harden-Durant trio that would be as good as any in the NBA is still the primary goal. Durant’s close friendship with Harden from their Oklahoma City days is as good a recruiting edge as a team can have, and the reality about the forthcoming free agent market is that Howard – red flags and all – can fill that third-star spot as well as any other available player.
Yes, he’s 30 years old with declining numbers and a recent injury history that many executives believe will keep him from getting the max money he wants. But with free agency Plan Bs such as Al Horford and Ryan Anderson in play, Howard is the player the Rockets would most prefer to play that part.
The Rockets could have the ability to add two max-money players this summer if they so choose, and the Harden-Howard relationship – while far from perfect – is effective enough that confidence remains they can make it work.
If only this was a one-way street. Howard, whose image took a profound hit during the Orlando Magic and Los Angeles Lakers exits that led to his arrival in Houston, must also decide what factors matter most as he embarks on the back end of his career.
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While it’s true that Howard never asked for a trade leading up to the deadline, the notion that his always-aggressive agent, Dan Fegan, wasn’t part of the process is about as believable as the notion of the Rockets winning it all this season. A message was being sent to the rest of the league in the days leading up to the deadline, with teams such as the Milwaukee Bucks, Charlotte Hornets and Atlanta Hawks learning firsthand that Howard’s top-dollar demands are very real. The fact that Howard was known to be seriously considering a change in representation at the time, meanwhile, only complicated an already-tricky situation.
Yet if Howard truly wanted out of Houston, he could have told those teams he would pick up the player option for next season and push his free agency back to the summer of 2018. Instead, he stayed, and the possibility of this partnership surviving remained.
No one knows if he can actually land a max deal, but the historic nature of the forthcoming salary cap spike (from approximately $70 million to a projected $92 million) means the seemingly-impossible might be possible in the end. That bridge will be crossed when July 1 rolls around.
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The stuff that matters the most from now until then has nothing to do with money but will factor heavily in how this all turns out. Can Harden and Howard – whose relationship has clearly been strained by the losing, the style of play and good, old-fashioned personality differences – rekindle what they had last season and make a promising playoff push? Can Howard get more comfortable in the Rockets’ system, perhaps realizing that dominating on the pick-and-roll and in the open floor is more important for him offensively than the feed-the-beast approach in the post on which he has always been so fixated?
But remember, it was only two months ago when Howard himself made it clear that he wanted to “make this thing work (in Houston).”
“I chose to go to Houston, so why would I just say, ‘I’m not happy’ and leave?” Howard, told USA TODAY Sports in mid-December. “I chose this place, you know what I’m saying? And I want to make this thing work here.
“Obviously we haven’t been playing great basketball, and personally for myself my numbers don’t seem like I’ve been playing great, but the only thing on my mind is trying to grow as a man and grow as a teammate and a leader. All the BS that’s around, sometimes it is frustrating to hear it, because I know who I am as a man and I know what I’m trying to do for this city.”
Let the marriage counseling begin.
Follow Sam Amick on Twitter @sam_amick.