Grammys analysis: It's Swift vs. Lamar for album, song

When Kendrick Lamar surprise-released his vehement To Pimp a Butterfly in March, critics and fans alike praised it as a monumental hip-hop masterpiece. So it's gratifying — if not entirely unexpected — that the Recording Academy has recognized the 28-year-old Compton rapper with a leading 11 Grammy nominations, including album (Butterfly) and song (Alright) of the year.

Lamar is no stranger to Grammys love, having already racked up nine nominations and two wins since the 2014 awards (including an album-of-the-year nod for major label debut good kid, m.A.A.d. city). That he's this year's most-nominated act with an album as vital and socially conscious as Butterfly is significant and reflects how no one artist has captured the headlines or national mood of these past 12 months more than Lamar.

Kendrick Lamar, Taylor Swift, The Weeknd lead Grammy nominations

Of course, there's also Taylor Swift with her late-2014 smash 1989, which is now eligible and up for seven awards, including album, record and song (Blank Space) of the year. Adele's 25 notwithstanding, 1989 has been the best-selling album of the past year with 5.4 million sold, according to Nielsen Music, and is the most pervasive on radio by a mile. Shake It Off was nominated in both record and song categories at the 2015 awards, and Lamar collaboration Bad Blood vies for two trophies. (Other 1989 singles Style and Wildest Dreams were not submitted for Grammys consideration.)

List: See all the Grammy nominees

Tying Swift with seven nominations, R&B singer The Weeknd crowns his breakout 2015 with nods for album (Beauty Behind the Madness) and record of the year (Can't Feel My Face), as well as three for Fifty Shades of Grey anthem Earned It. The Weeknd has been nominated once before (in 2014, for Wiz Khalifa collaboration Remember You), but his strong showing this year only solidifies his status as a bona fide pop star. Still, his plaudits as a relative newcomer aren't unprecedented: Sam Smith (In the Lonely Hour), Macklemore & Ryan Lewis (The Heist) and Frank Ocean (Channel Orange) all earned album nods for their debuts.

Here's a category-by-category analysis of the top contenders:

Album of the year

Despite its usual domination by pop acts, album of the year is more refreshingly diverse than in years past. Country newcomer Chris Stapleton, who walked away with top prizes at the Country Music Awards last month, saddles up for more potential wins with debut album Traveller and could very well clean house in genre categories, given his popularity as a "bro country" antidote. Southern rockers Alabama Shakes, fronted by blues singer/guitarist Brittany Howard, also are contending for multiple honors with their well-received sophomore effort, Sound & Color.

Based on critical reviews and sheer popularity alone, it seems as if Lamar and Swift are most likely to duke it out. Between them, it will ultimately come down to whether the academy prefers to honor the mainstream crowd-pleaser (1989) or the urgent, challenging work (Butterfly).

Swift has multiple wins on her side and has done her share of campaigning, with an intimate listening session for academy members in which she discussed the production and songwriting behind 1989. Her last album, 2012's Red, failed to pick up any awards, so voters could feel it is due time to recognize the ex-country star, particularly with her more cohesive foray into pop this go-around.

While it's expected that Lamar will dominate the rap categories, album of the year could be more elusive. Critically adored efforts from Kanye West, Eminem and Lil Wayne have competed for the prize this past decade, but the last time a hip-hop album has won the top award was OutKast's Speakerboxxx/The Love Below in 2004. (Before that, Lauryn Hill's The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill in 1999).

If academy voters are split between Lamar and Swift, it could usher in a win for one of the other nominees, most likely Alabama Shakes. (Surprise wins for Beck's Morning Phase this year and Arcade Fire's The Suburbs in 2011 suggest that, when in doubt, voters favor alternative rock acts.)

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Record of the year

As usual, the record category is commanded by the Top 40, made clear by the inclusion of Ed Sheeran's Thinking Out Loud and two Max Martin-produced hits (The Weeknd's Can't Feel My Face and Taylor Swift's Blank Space). While music fans will rejoice to see that D'Angelo and the Vanguard made the cut with Really Love — off Black Messiah, the R&B/soul icon's first album in 15 years — Mark Ronson's Uptown Funk seems like the front-runner for the prize.

With the combination of its throwback sound, immense popularity (14 weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart) and stacked production credits of respected musicians (Ronson, Bruno Mars and three-time Grammy winner Jeff Bhasker), Uptown is on a sure path to funk up the category come February.

Song of the year

Highlighting songwriters rather than producers, the song-of-the-year nominees have a bit more flavor than this year’s record batch. Chiefly, Little Big Town’s cheeky Girl Crush is a welcome surprise, if not solely to spite radio listeners who decried its “lesbian” lyrics this summer. Wiz Khalifa’s song-of-summer See You Again is a safe choice, but is remedied by the addition of Kendrick Lamar’s Alright: an impassioned battle cry against police brutality that could nab votes for its timely message.

Still, Sheeran's Thinking Out Loud and Swift's Blank Space are the only two singles nominated for both record and song this year, so expect the academy to want to award Swift at least one of those (particularly if 1989 loses to Butterfly for album). With its introspective lyrics, synth-pop sensibilities and hilariously self-aware music video (with 1.3 billion views on YouTube and counting), Blank captured the zeitgeist more than any of the other nominees.

Best new artist

The one true breakout star of the year, rapper Fetty Wap, is not nominated here, despite multiple hit singles this year. (He did score nominations for best rap song and performance for Trap Queen.) In his absence, any one of these five artists is game to take the crown. Meghan Trainor (nominated for record and song of the year at the 2015 awards for All About That Bass) certainly has the highest profile, although she has no other nominations this round.

Newcomers Sam Hunt and Tori Kelly each had a presence on radio, but neither seemed to make much noise outside of their respective country and pop genres. Indie-rocker Courtney Barnett could be the left-of-center pick that nabs the prize (akin to Esperanza Spalding or Bon Iver), although that could go to British singer James Bay, who is just starting to break stateside and is nominated in other categories, including best rock album (Chaos and the Calm).